The results are in and the ALP have won the election with a comfortable majority. They have increased their primary vote about 2% to 34.7% since last election and won the two party preferred vote handsomely. 

On the surface this looks like a landslide victory for the ALP and anyone in their party will understandably be celebrating. 

Yet, when you look at the results closely, the trends should be worrying not just for the Liberals, but for the ALP as well.

The ALP primary vote increased to 34.7%, which is roughly what it was when they lost the 2016 vote to Abbott. The Coalitions vote has dropped by 4%, with further 2% going to other candidates, many of them independents. The combined total of 64.7% for the ALP and Coalition is lower than it has been since 1903.

Independents appear to have picked up a number of seats. The Liberals are facing a crisis as they continue to lose to independents, but the ALP also has the potential to lose Calwell, Franklin, Fremantle, and Bean.

Anecdotally as well, we have not heard many particularly enthusiastic about this election, and when I think about when the campaign seemed to shift, it was when Trump started threatening to annex Canada and wildly brandishing tariffs.

So is Canada a good place to look to explain the election? Several months prior to the election, the conservatives in Canada were winning by 20 percentage points. After Trump's antics, the liberal (progressive) party ended up winning a minority victory. The large swing against Dutton causing him to lose his own seat may also be evidence of this backlash against Trump’s instability. 

It’s hard to tell the actual impact of these events and Trump clearly hasn’t influenced our election as much as the Canadian one. There are other factors like interest rates, the cost of living, the Liberals controversial nuclear policy, Peter Dutton himself, and a tidy ALP campaign. But… we’re not convinced that this election is a ringing endorsement of the ALP’s direction. 

There are good things about the ALP’s election promises and we hope that they keep many of their commitments. We hope they actually increase housing construction and are glad that super won’t be tampered with. Their improvements to medicare are great and we look forward to their bulk billing and hope they can address the GP shortage. 

With this clear victory the ALP now has the political capital to enact their promised changes and real reform.

Will they use it wisely though? Will they properly address the issues that have been continually ignored by our politicians? 

Will they actually take the steps needed to properly fix the housing crisis? 

Will they actually look at addressing inflation and the cost of living crisis?

Will they actually look at fixing the ongoing crisis our education system is in?

Will they actually make the hard choices that need to be made on defence?

Or… Will they continue to kick the cans down the road as they have been for a decade?

Will we back here in 3 years, with nothing changed, the population even more disillusioned, frustrated, and angry at an Australia that no longer works for all Australians? 

We hope for the best, but in the meantime will be busy. We want to compete in the next election and offer a positive choice for Australians.

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