As we look to the future in our election series, 2022 has been another year of shattered expectations. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a sharp wake up call to the continued relevance of military power in today’s world. Ukraine is far away, but how should we be thinking about all of this? How can we understand our world and Australia’s place in it? What does a Foreign Policy that looks to the future in 1, 10, and 100 years look like?  

Australia is extremely unlikely to be directly invaded, but our region has become significantly less stable in the last few years. In just a few years, an increasingly assertive Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has crushed democracy in Hong Kong, forged a pact with the Solomon Islands with the potential for military power projection, and has attempted to economically coerce Australia into accepting the CCP’s view of strategic matters. Even more concerning is the very real and substantial threat of a CCP invasion of Taiwan. If the CCP could take the democratic island of 20 million people without unacceptable costs, it very likely would. With such dangerous threats to worldwide security, there are some lessons we should take when considering a future focussed foreign policy. 

We must have our eyes wide open to the very real threats in the world. Authoritarian regimes have no problems bending the world to their will through economic coercion, propaganda, and military power. We have seen this in the CCP’s brutal suppression of Hong Kong and its military expansion into the South China Sea. Most starkly we have seen it in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. We may wish we lived in an idealised world where military power does not matter, but as Ukraine is painfully aware, you cannot negotiate with a regime that has made up its mind to enforce its unacceptable will through violence. 

We must guard our independence carefully. Those watching the Russian-Ukraine conflict would have noticed Germany’s reticence in placing sanctions on Russia and on sending Ukraine military aid. The reason for this is their dependence on Russian energy. Over the last few years, Germany has traded a part of its political independence for economic benefits, with the cost of regaining that independence being significant economic pain. We have been exposed to similar coercion by China, but successfully resisted this due to our anti-authoritarian mentality, some well-timed effective political leadership, and, ironically (pun intended), China’s reliance on Australia for critical resources (see here for further reading). We should choose the partners with whom we trust our strategic dependencies carefully. 

Soft power, espionage, and propaganda are real and effective tools of foreign policy. Russia’s propaganda has been terribly effective in spreading lies and confusion both inside and outside of Russia. Russian propaganda (and repression) has so far kept its populace quiet with a false and frankly ridiculous tale of Russia invading Ukraine to liberate it from its (Jewish) Nazi leadership and destroy bioweapons that Ukraine is supposedly developing. While not directly applicable to us, many of the cities and regions Russia has managed to capture from Ukraine in the last 8 years has been with the aid of locals recruited by Russian espionage. In our own backyard we have suffered (for now) a diplomatic failure in preventing a pact between the Solomon Islands and the CCP, which would allow the CCP to project military power further into our region. While the link between our soft power (influence wielded through non-military means) efforts in the region and this development is unclear, our lack of concern for sea level rise and reduced foreign aid budget have clearly not helped. Power is wielded deliberately and effectively in our world in many ways short of war. For us to prepare for the future, we must be aware of these methods and put the necessary resources towards countering them. 

We must avoid careless foreign military intervention. While not the obvious takeaway for us in the West, it is worth noting that for Russia this invasion has been a disaster. Thousands have died, their economy is in tatters, and Putin has put himself in a precarious and dangerous position. While Australia has used military force well in the past (for example, East Timor), we need to be wary of careless military intervention. There is a time to use military force, but it must be used carefully, with good cause, and with specific aims and objectives. 

Given all this, what does an Australian foreign policy for the future look like? Our foreign policy goals must be directed towards creating long term peace and freedom in our region. As the Roman general Vegetius said however, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” We must be peace loving, but have our eyes wide open. Until all powers in our region are committed to resolving conflict peacefully, we must develop our neglected defensive capabilities. We must be careful of our strategic dependencies, and we must develop both the hard and soft tools required to counter our competitors. Peace is not free. Freedom is not free. The price of liberty is eternal vigilance.