This looks far too much like a horror film to those who understand modern history. By threatening to abandon Ukraine and his European allies and instead work with Russia, Trump has upended 80 years of American Foreign Policy and is reshaping the world in a terrible and brutal way. Without America supporting the rules based order, we are in a world where the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.¹

What does this mean for Europe? 

As it stands, America is no longer a reliable ally for Europe. 

This is a disaster. European underinvestment and freeloading in defence has been starkly revealed as they now face confronting Russian aggression with the prospect of no American support. 

Europe now has a choice. They can make the difficult decisions to invest substantially in Ukraine’s and their defence, or they can accept a large amount of risk as to Russia’s future actions. 

The question is not one of capability, but one of European political will. Russia’s economy is not much larger than Australia’s, Europe has just, so far, been unwilling to pay up.

If they make the hard choice as some like Poland and the Baltic states have, it will likely be sufficient, but given European disunity, naivety, and the temptation to freeload within Europe, there is no guarantee of that. 

What does this mean for Asia? 

It’s very bad. While the USA is ostensibly prioritising Asia, the very same arguments used to justify a withdrawal from Europe justify a withdrawal from Asia. America’s involvement in Asia is no longer entirely reliable.

Were America to withdraw from the region, every country in Asia would have to adjust to the new reality of Chinese dominance in the region. 

It is probable that we would also see Japan and/or South Korea developing nuclear weapons to protect themselves from Chinese coercion. Given Ukraine’s experience in giving up nuclear weapons and that of actors like North Korea, it appears that a Nuclear deterrent may be the only foolproof protection a country can have. 

What does this mean for Australia?

It’s bad. While the outlook may change quickly, it appears that America is no longer a reliable long term ally. 

In the short term, we still have to rely on America. We don’t have a choice as we haven’t made the investments required for a more independent foreign policy. 

The choices we make today, however, will decide what options we have in the future. 

The main threat we face is that of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) coercion. The CCP is active in influencing Australian politics internally and we have seen their coercion in hostile trade actions aimed to change our political decision making process. 

Spending more on defence will cost substantially but, depending how we spend it, will give us more options and a better potential to resist coercion in the future.  

We still hope that the USA will prove reliable in Asia and are not advocating withdrawing from the alliance, but the time to prepare for contingencies is now. 

Postscript

We all wish that we didn’t have to invest money in defence and we hope those weapons aren’t used. Money spent in defence inevitably means money not spent on schools, hospitals, social welfare, and consumption. In a world with bad actors, however, you either spend money on defence, or you place yourself at the mercy of those bad actors.

With the election coming up, we hope to see seriousness and long-term thinking that been lacking in discussions on defence up till now.

Footnote

1. In the words of historian Thucydides