Opinion Piece 

There’s been some chaos over the last few weeks

- One Nation has seen support of over 20% in several polls, the significance of which has been underreported.

- The ALP has rushed through new hate speech laws, which will potentially impinge upon free speech. 

- The Nationals have split from the Coalition over those laws after several of their frontbench members crossed the floor and voted against it and then received disciplinary action from the Liberals. 

The immediate catalyst for the jump in support for One Nation (who are mostly against immigration) appears to be the public reaction to the Bondi massacre. This has then put pressure on the National party, which stands to lose several seats, and appears to be driving the split in the Coalition. See here.

Why the political impact now though? We have had resentment against immigration in Australia for some time and events such as the extremist Lindt cafe siege in 2014 have not caused such a political ruckus. What is different now? 

There's the impact of social media, the distrust in institutions since covid, but to me one thing stands out above the others: The economy.

Particularly since Covid, things have got worse for poor Australians. We have had:

• Persistent inflation.
• Stagnant wage growth. 
• A growing housing crisis that is transferring every dollar it can from the poor to the rich. 

The response of the major parties has been woeful. They have pretended to address these problems with nice sounding policies while pandering to rich Australians (in housing and superannuation). They have done absolutely nothing that will fix the major structural problems in the Australian economy and their housing policies have actively made the problem worse. Our politicians are driving Australia off a cliff because it will hurt to slam on the brakes. 

Many Australians just don’t buy it any more. More than a third of formal votes last election were for parties other than the ALP and Coalition and it appears that even more are willing to vote for anyone willing to force change now. 

What could happen from here? 

It’s extremely difficult to predict. I have a few thoughts:

• I think it’s likely Andrew Hastie will take over the Liberal leadership. As he is seen as a conservative with genuine conviction, he will likely be able to win back some One Nation votes. He may be able to temporarily restore confidence in the Coalition. 
• The National party may reevaluate and turn more conservative on immigration and social policy. 
• One Nation has been divided for years and, even if successful in the next election, I suspect will fall apart again. While earnest, Hanson has not shown herself able to keep the party united. 

This is all in the short term though. Long term it depends on what the major parties do. 

Will they actually address the structural problems in the Australian economy that have killed the Australian dream and continue to make the rich richer and the poor poorer? 

If they do, the major parties may maintain the traditional dominance they have had over our politics. 

If they don’t, the alternatives will grow, often from the extremes, and they will be swept away. 

What’s needed to fix the problem?

In short, politicians and political parties that are willing to work for the common good of all Australians. We need politicians willing to take on the vested interests in the housing market and Australian economy more broadly to make Australia affordable again. Australia is a rich developed economy and Australians should have no trouble living comfortably. 

I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see either major political party as having the guts to address the real problems right now - the political pain just isn't quite high enough yet - which means we’re in for alternatives. 

Most of these are on the fringes and often extreme, but they don’t have to be. 

For some time we have been trying to establish a serious party committed to the welfare of Australians. One that is willing to make decisions to make the country better for the long term. Help us do this. Tell your friends about us or get in touch with us to discuss ways you might be able to help. 

In a world that appears to be on fire, it can be disheartening to look on feeling powerless to do anything to help. We can make a difference though and there is power in numbers. Join us as we fight for the common good in Australia.